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by Grant Weaver
Four years ago, Super Tuesday had 15 more states participating one whole month earlier than the watered down version of this year. In 2008 there were 25 contests in February, nearly half the country in one go. In 2012, only 10 put off until March.
While it may seem that the low quality of the candidates has pushed this out so long, the GOP nomination process has taken so much longer this time around not so much because of Mitt Romney's failure to unite the party, but because of the party's decision to extend the primary season with less winner-take-all events to be more deliberative about choosing their candidate.
Super Tuesday 2008 vs 2012
In 2008 Sen. John McCain won 10 contests, less than half, 42% of the popular vote, and roughly 62% of the delegates. Romney won 7 states, 34% of the popular vote, and 21% of the delegates. While Mike Huckabee won
In 2012 Mitt Romney won 6 contests, more than half, 39% of the popular vote, and 54% of the delegates. Santorum took 3 contests, 28% of the popular vote, and only 21% of the delegates
Though Romney 2012 got a little less of the popular vote and delegates than McCain did in 2008, he won larger percentage of states that weren't winner take all making his votes mean more in delegate count. Plus, Santorum did much worse this Super Tuesday than Romney's 2008 performance.
Comparison of States Won
Assuming that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul do not win any states in any upcoming contests, Mitt Romney will have won 43 contests including non-state contests such as Puerto Rico & D.C., Santorum 11, Gingrich 2, and Paul 1 depending on how you count the Virgin Islands.
In 2008 McCain won 37 contests, , Romney won 11 and Huckabee took 8.
Mitt Romney will have one 6 more states than McCain did in 2008, Santorum will have won the same amount Romney took in 2008.
Romney 2012's 6 contest margin over McCain 2008 isn't large but we sure don't see a larger "rift" in the voting because Newt Gingrich was less of a contender than Mike Huckabee was in 2008. It only appears to be slightly more united even though chronologically it has taken more time.
What can we take from this?
First, extended primary seasons make things ugly when trying to unseat an incumbent President. If a party's goal is to get the other guy out, slow deliberation should be saved for a contest with no incumbent.
Second, Romney would have ended this much quicker if the primary calendar was more like the one in 2008. Not only because chronologically it would have ended quicker but because his lead would have seemed so much larger early on to have encouraged other candidates to drop out sooner.
Third, Rick Santorum may not have enough steam or support to justify a 2016 or 2020 run.
Finally, the media will always be trusted to make things seem worse and more dramatic than they really are. Besides the drawn out calendar and the media's attempt to make it seem "nasty", this has been a fairly regular primary.
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